Strait of Hormuz: Why Iran’s New Tactics Are Keeping Oil Near $105
Eight months after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran began on February 28, the Strait of Hormuz remains the most important choke point in the world economy and the most contested. Brent crude traded around $105 to $106 a barrel this week, with U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate in the mid-$90s, as fresh attacks on shipping reminded markets how fragile the situation remains.
A Shift in Tactics
On Tuesday, the UK Maritime Trade Operations center reported that a container ship and a tanker had been hit by unknown projectiles inside the strait. Iranian officials then told Reuters that Tehran began using different offensive tactics against vessels it considers in violation of its restrictions about ten days earlier, and that this has led to more attacks. The same officials said the aim includes keeping oil prices high and influencing the U.S. midterm elections.
That openness drew sharp reactions from market analysts, who argued it undercuts the credibility of the ongoing peace talks.
How Much Is Actually Moving?
Before the war, roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passed through the strait. Data from the analytics firm Kpler show flows averaged about 11.6 million barrels per day in the seven days to October 13. That is around 68% of the 17.15 million barrels per day baseline. Washington continues to blockade Iran-related shipping and ports and introduced tougher sanctions last month, which Iran cites as a reason for stepping up strikes near the waterway.
A Long and Winding Diplomatic Track
Diplomacy has produced moments of hope but no durable settlement. U.S. and Iranian negotiators met face to face in Islamabad in April, the highest-level direct contact between the two countries in decades. A memorandum of understanding in June briefly eased tensions, but the ceasefire was declared over in July as the two sides traded renewed strikes. Since then, Iran and Oman have discussed how to manage traffic through the strait, including possible service fees, an idea Washington opposes.
Why It Matters Beyond Oil
The strait’s disruption ripples outward: it feeds into inflation figures, shapes central-bank decisions, and has forced the largest coordinated emergency stock release in the history of the International Energy Agency. Until shipping volumes return to something close to normal, analysts say a risk premium is likely to remain embedded in oil prices.
This article reflects reporting available as of October 16, 2026. Fast-moving events may have changed since.